Once Upon A Time There Was A Widely Popular African-American Politician. He Inspired Hope, And Represented Change. Going Into Election Day He Held A Huge Lead In The Polls, Then… The White Guy Won.
The Bradley Effect (Wikipedia) Boils Down To White PPL Who Tell Pollsters That They Will Vote For A Non-White Politician, But Do Not Do So In The Privacy Of The Voting Booth.
The ‘Effect’ Got It’s Name From Tom Bradley (Photo Above), Who Lost The 1988 California Gubernatorial Race Even After Being Far Ahead In The Polls Going Into Election Day.
It’s Been Estimated That The Percentage Of PPL Who Say They Will Vote For A Non-White Candidate, But Do Not Follow Through, Ranges Between 3-6 Points… Yikes.
The Way I See It Two Things Could Happen…
1. Obama Looses And The Bradley Effect Becomes A Permanent Fixture In Current American Politics. Pollsters May Begin To Account For The Effect In The Margin Of Error Before Disclosing Poll Results… Oh, And I Will Start A Riot Bigger Than Any Phillie’s Celebration On Broad Street.
2. Obama Wins And The Bradley Effect Becomes A Vague Historical Bump In The African-America Civil Rights Era. And While It Still May Play A Small Part In Local Elections, Possibly In More Conservative States, It Will Have Passed As A Major Political Problem For Black Candidates.
